blame it on the falling sky

In the fourth turning

Sun, 17 May 2009 21:34:41 GMT

In packing up my apartment, I've been thumbing through old books, deciding which ones to keep and which ones to throw on the "free" pile destined for my sidewalk. One book, The Fourth Turning, was an automatic entrant into the free pile. I've owned it at least six years and never cracked the binding. I think I initially picked it up at a yard sale. Probably for a dollar. So, it was with great surprise that I found myself reading startlingly accurate prophecies in its pages. First, an intro into this whole "turning" business:

The reward of the historian is to locate patterns that recur over time and to discover the natural rhythms of social experience.

In fact, at the core of modern history lies this remarkable pattern: Over the past five centuries, Anglo-American society has entered a new era--a new turning--every two decades or so. At the start of each turning, people change how they feel about themselves, the culture, the nation, and the future. Turnings come in cycles of four. The whole cycle spans the length of a long human life, roughly 80 to 100 years, a unite of time the ancient called saeculum. Together, the four turnings of the saeculum compromise histories seasonal rhythm of rebirth, growth, entropy and distruction:

First turning is a HIGH, an upbeat era of strengthening institutions and weakening individualism, when a new civic order implants and an old values regime decays.
Second turning is an AWAKENING, a passionate era of spiritual upheaval, when the civic order comes under attack from a new values regime.
The Third Turning is an UNRAVELING, a downcast era of strengthening individualism and weakening institutions, when the old civic order decays and the new values regime implants.
The Fourth Turning is a CRISIS (ding ding!), a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one.

So...First Turning was Truman thru Kennedy. Second Turning was mid-60s to early 1980s. Third Turning began during Reagan and was still going strong in the mid 1990s, which was when this book was written in 1996. I'm guessing the Fourth Turning began in October 2008, when the market crashed and Obama's lead was large enough to guarantee him the presidency. Which is why the next passage is chilling in its accuracy:

A Great Devaluation may occur right around the time Millenials fill the twenties age bracket, just as they are emerging as a truly "national" generation, the pride of their elders. Whatever their new economic hardships (and they could be major), Millennials will not riot, but will instead mobilize for public purpose. Older people will be anguished to see these good kids suffer for the mistakes of others. Boomers and 13ers will together urgently resist the prospect that a second consecutive generation might be denied access to the American Dream. No matter how shattered the economy, no matter how fiscally stretched the government, a place will be found for youth. To accomplish this, youth work status will be standardized, their job titles shortened, and pay gaps narrowed.

Youth voters will confound pundits with huge turnouts, massing on behalf of favored candidates--especially elders who, like Lincoln or FDR, can translate spiritual resolve into public authority. When Millennials encounter politicians or officials who oppose their concept of progress and cling to the old regime, they will not feel alienated or tune out, 13er-style. Instead, they will get busy working to defeat or overcome them. Their success will lead some older critics to perceive real danger in the political energy of a rising generation perceived as capable but naive.

Then the authors go on about how things could take a turn for the worst in 2010. Youthful collectivism could start to look like Communist China's Red Guard youth brigades of the 1960s. Sounds a little extreme to me, but what do I know...

...Of all today's generations, the Millennials probably have the most at stake in the coming crisis. If it ends badly, they would bear the full burden of its consequence throughout their adult lives. If they come of age traumatized, like the Progressive youths of the Civil War, Millennials will thereafter attend to the details of suffering and healing as heirs to the Artist archetype. Yet if the crisis ends well, Millennials will be triumphant. Their reputation for virtue will solidify around a credo of valor and competence. Like the world-conquering G.I.s in midlife, Millennials will feel intensely modern in science and taste. They will build large new constructions, establish a powerful social regimen, and indulge their children. When a new Awakening later erupts, the Millennials will for the first time discover a generation that refuses to celebrate them: their own children, freshly come of age.

Also fascinating look back on the 1990s, which was a third turning (also "unraveling" period):

In recent years, many have despaired that America no longer produces leaders who can galvanize and inspire. Yet it is the turning, not the nation, that elevates great people to the apex of national power. Lincoln and FDR are both cases in point: Both has to wait for a crisis to hit. An Unraveling is an era when most people of intelligence, vision, and integrity do not seek (much less get elected to) high public offices. Nor is it an era when people want leaders to lead them anywhere. Indeed, the 90s-era America seems to care very little about who leads--and more more about making sure that we aren't led too fast or too far in any direction. Were candidates of Lincoln's mettle to emerge in a time like our own, they would strike people as odd, out of joint." (Imagine Barack Obama giving his Hope speech in 1993!)"After a Fourth Turning arrives, however, a Lincoln-like leader will be more likely to seek office--and a Lincoln-like leader could be exactly what America needs, wants and gets.

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 23:26:57 GMT

Once upon a time, I was 15.
Incubus #1

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Literature Research music literature

Aliquippa, PA

Tue, 27 Jan 2009 16:26:58 GMT

1
Originally uploaded by Dorsett Studios.

A great rust belt photo from 1989. Looking at photos like this, I wonder what will replace America's fallen industries. What jobs will support America's shrinking middle class?

late night.

Sat, 04 Oct 2008 06:44:26 GMT

heart ache

Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:56:05 GMT

why I love morning talk shows

Sun, 13 Jul 2008 00:40:57 GMT

Kathy Lee Gifford is like that girl on the varsity soccer team in high school who was always acting a little drunk, and completely incapable of keeping quiet during class. The one who gave a blowjob in the parking lot to that guy who moved away to Canada. And can I just say this? I totally love her!!

If you're going to watch this, I suggest keeping with it to the very end, when it completely unravels. Kathy Lee starts giving this poor guy a massage, as he's noticeably shaken by it.

oh, the horror

Wed, 18 Jun 2008 04:35:20 GMT

Is this for real?

shudder.

This is a music video (?) for Samantha Ronson--Lyndsay Lohan's girlfriend.

DC Pride - 2007

Fri, 13 Jun 2008 01:38:07 GMT

DC Pride - 2007
Originally uploaded by worleyx.

Happy pride season.

Sun, 25 May 2008 15:13:45 GMT

Just bought two tickets to Oakland, for August 20-27th.

See you all in sunny San Francisco!

The ladies of the Office are, like, totally BFF

Sat, 24 May 2008 01:37:50 GMT

funny girls

Wed, 02 Apr 2008 20:28:53 GMT

Ab Fab in springtime

Wed, 02 Apr 2008 03:47:15 GMT

I just learned that the complete Ab Fab series is finally being released as a box set in the U.S. Release date is May 27, 2008. Pre-order from Amazon and save $40: http://www.amazon.com/Absolutely-Fabulous-Everything-Jennifer-Saunders/dp/B000UNYPGM/ref=pd_sxp_grid_pt_0_0

honeymoon

Mon, 24 Mar 2008 06:15:11 GMT

Had an Easter dinner with friends tonight, and discussed the following question by a friend who's planning her honeymoon: If you could go anywhere, and if money and time and distance was not an issue, where would you go?

Answers:
1. Australia
2. Tuscany
3. Cape Town, South Africa
4. Greece, Turkey, Mediterranean trip
5. Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia trip

My answer was Tuscany, but that's more a reflection of my limited travel experience than any personal preference.

Then again, one of the reasons I'm looking forward to turning 40 (which, in case you didn't know, is a long way away) is because I'll be better equipped to spend weeks or months in a Tuscan villa, drinking buckets of Chianti with close friends and eating some of the best food on earth.

Where would you honeymoon? The mountains? The sea?

effective ESL

Fri, 14 Mar 2008 01:29:05 GMT

building a management library

Sun, 02 Mar 2008 18:06:52 GMT

Yesterday, I picked up a book at Politics & Prose entitled, "Managing Oneself." It's a Harvard Business Review classic, and is just 55 pocket-sized pages. It's the only book I purchased.

Sometime between 4pm yesterday and just a few moments ago, I realized that this is quite possibly the most depressing thing I've ever done.

Allow me to transcribe a passage from this tiny orange book, so that you'll get a better idea of why life absolutely sucks right now.

"Whether a business should be run for short-term results or with a focus on the long term is likewise a question of values. Financial analysts believe that businesses can be run for both simultaneously. Successful business people know better."

And it goes on and on like that.

Excuse me while I turn on Radiohead's Amnesiac and light up a cigarette. I need to get back to my college years. Is anyone listening? What the fuck is happening?

cool guerilla marketing

Wed, 05 Dec 2007 16:30:12 GMT

Opération Act Up Paris
Uploaded by operationActUp

Things that make you go "hmmmm"

Wed, 05 Dec 2007 14:35:40 GMT

The lead headline in today's Daily Sunshine announces that according to a list released by the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine of China, three imported batches of Pringles Potato Chips were found to contain potassium bromate, a carcinogen, in July. The additive is allowed in Japanese and American markets, where the Pringles in question were supposed to be sold.

Russian company buys Livejournal

Mon, 03 Dec 2007 16:29:51 GMT

"Go onto Russian underworld servers and you enter an emporium of crime, with lists of looted documents, stolen identities and hijacked computers already assembled into botnets (see Rise of the botnets, below), with almost all of it linked in some way to RBN. ""

I'm a little alarmed by this, and my concern is most definitely related to the scores of Russian-language spam I receive each day. 60% of all internet crime comes from Russia. And now Livejournal is owned by a Russian company.

SAN FRANCISCO – December 3, 2007 – SUP, an international media company based in Moscow, today announced that it has acquired LiveJournal from Six Apart, Ltd. LiveJournal is one of the world's leading global online communities, with a monthly audience of more than 18m unique visitors in nearly every country in the world. Additionally, SUP today launched a new U.S. company, LiveJournal, Inc., based in San Francisco, which will manage and operate LiveJournal. More information on the acquisition is available at lj_2008.

Story here.

Ask Smacker

Fri, 30 Nov 2007 15:35:32 GMT

The latest installment of "Ask Smacker." I have a huge crush on Sufei. It's true.

geek humor

Fri, 16 Nov 2007 11:14:37 GMT

I'm up early. Really early. It was at least 5am when I woke up. The question is, do I stay up and blog? (The answer is, I most certainly do!

http://icanhascheezburger.com/

moar funny pictures

facing the [self-marketing] music

Mon, 22 Oct 2007 22:05:35 GMT

The day has come. I can't put it off any longer.

I have to start a blog.

Yes, you're right. I already have a Livejournal. I also have a shared music blog, a Twitter account, a Facebook profile (in addition to Myspace, Linked-In, Orkut, Hi5, Stickam, etc), Delicious bookmarks, Digg and Magnolia accounts, Flickr, YouTube, Joost, public RSS feeds, and many more. With so much social media real estate, what could possibly be gained by adding another full-blown, navel-gazing blog to the pile?

Well, as far as I can tell, it's like a business card for the tech crowd. It makes me legitimate. It's the difference between selling my expertise on the sidewalk and selling it at an industry convention. If I'm going through the trouble to post my thoughts and technology diatribes on a blog each week, then I've got to be:

a) serious about what I do
b) capable of offering something of value to the conversation
c) interested in contributing to that discussion, not just observing it

My plan is this. Start simple. A few high quality entries on social media and online niche marketing. Now I must choose a platform--probably Wordpress or Squarespace.

Sigh. Another day. Another blog.

the banned karen carpenter story (as retold with barbie dolls)

Sun, 21 Oct 2007 20:17:19 GMT

Openly gay, experimental filmmaker Todd Haynes burst upon the scene two years after his graduation from Brown University with his ... all » now-infamous 43-minute cult treasure "Superstar: The Karen Carpenter Story" (1987). Seizing upon the inspired gimmick of using Barbie and Ken dolls to sympathetically recount the story of the pop star's death from anorexia, he spent months making miniature dishes, chairs, costumes, Kleenex and Ex-Lax boxes, and Carpenters' records to create the film's intricate, doll-size mise-en-scene. The result was both audacious and accomplished as the dolls seemingly ceased to be dolls leaving the audience weeping for the tragic singer.

Unfortunately, Richard Carpenter's enmity for the film (which made him look like a selfish jerk) led to the serving of a "cease and desist" order in 1989, and despite the director's offer "to only show the film in clinics and schools, with all money going to the Karen Carpenter memorial fund for anorexia research," "Superstar" remains buried, one of the few films in modern America that cannot be seen by the general public.

An O Street Encounter with the Dalai Lama

Fri, 19 Oct 2007 21:34:02 GMT

My mother is in town this weekend, so I took the day off work and we headed out to the museums. On our way to her hotel, just a block from my apartment, we ran into the Dalai Lama.

No, really. Just as we were crossing O Street, traveling downVermont Ave., we noticed to our right a small group of photographers. The entire block was closed off by police vehicles. We asked a secret service-looking guy if we could check it out. He nodded. We walked over, noticed the robed, bald men and instantly knew it was the Dalai Lama's caravan. Then, suddenly, he exited the building and walked up to us, shaking everyone's hands along the way and smiling serenely. My mother bowed. He smiled at me. It was AWESOME.

This is why I love living in Washington D.C. How many of you can say that you bumped into the Dalai Lama just a block away from your house?

Other highlights of the day:
1. Annie Liebovitz exhibit at the Corcoran is AMAZING. I recommend seeing it. Even if you live hours away, it's worth the trip.
2. Edward Hopper is calming. Iconic. Classic American.

Now my mother and I shall attempt to cook chili and feed my friends.

Mingle, mingle, mingle!

Mon, 15 Oct 2007 03:06:54 GMT

Mingle, mingle, mingle!
Originally uploaded by Adrienne..

This is what social-networking looks like.

(I'm trying to pull this shot out for use in a powerpoint, but the uploader decided to prohibit image saves. Boo!)

Single mother fined $220,000 for downloading 24 songs

Mon, 08 Oct 2007 18:46:59 GMT

Whether she did it or not (I'm sure she did, and wish she would stop denying it) , I just don't think this is right. I've always hated the RIAA, hated most of the so-called artists on RIAA member labels, and am still scratching my head over how music is so damn expensive. The truth is, there are too many middlemen, and they're desperate to keep it that way. The economics of the internet threatens all the cronyism of the music industry. So many fat cats, so many hands in the pot.

Digital downloads require no packaging, no retailers, no distribution centers, no shipping and handling, etc. The product can essentially be distributed straight from the artist to the public (and in the underground music scene, that's often what happens)