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The reward of the historian is to locate patterns that recur over time and to discover the natural rhythms of social experience.
In fact, at the core of modern history lies this remarkable pattern: Over the past five centuries, Anglo-American society has entered a new era--a new turning--every two decades or so. At the start of each turning, people change how they feel about themselves, the culture, the nation, and the future. Turnings come in cycles of four. The whole cycle spans the length of a long human life, roughly 80 to 100 years, a unite of time the ancient called saeculum. Together, the four turnings of the saeculum compromise histories seasonal rhythm of rebirth, growth, entropy and distruction:
- First turning is a HIGH, an upbeat era of strengthening institutions and weakening individualism, when a new civic order implants and an old values regime decays.
- Second turning is an AWAKENING, a passionate era of spiritual upheaval, when the civic order comes under attack from a new values regime.
- The Third Turning is an UNRAVELING, a downcast era of strengthening individualism and weakening institutions, when the old civic order decays and the new values regime implants.
- The Fourth Turning is a CRISIS (ding ding!), a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one.
A Great Devaluation may occur right around the time Millenials fill the twenties age bracket, just as they are emerging as a truly "national" generation, the pride of their elders. Whatever their new economic hardships (and they could be major), Millennials will not riot, but will instead mobilize for public purpose. Older people will be anguished to see these good kids suffer for the mistakes of others. Boomers and 13ers will together urgently resist the prospect that a second consecutive generation might be denied access to the American Dream. No matter how shattered the economy, no matter how fiscally stretched the government, a place will be found for youth. To accomplish this, youth work status will be standardized, their job titles shortened, and pay gaps narrowed.
Youth voters will confound pundits with huge turnouts, massing on behalf of favored candidates--especially elders who, like Lincoln or FDR, can translate spiritual resolve into public authority. When Millennials encounter politicians or officials who oppose their concept of progress and cling to the old regime, they will not feel alienated or tune out, 13er-style. Instead, they will get busy working to defeat or overcome them. Their success will lead some older critics to perceive real danger in the political energy of a rising generation perceived as capable but naive.
Then the authors go on about how things could take a turn for the worst in 2010. Youthful collectivism could start to look like Communist China's Red Guard youth brigades of the 1960s. Sounds a little extreme to me, but what do I know......Of all today's generations, the Millennials probably have the most at stake in the coming crisis. If it ends badly, they would bear the full burden of its consequence throughout their adult lives. If they come of age traumatized, like the Progressive youths of the Civil War, Millennials will thereafter attend to the details of suffering and healing as heirs to the Artist archetype. Yet if the crisis ends well, Millennials will be triumphant. Their reputation for virtue will solidify around a credo of valor and competence. Like the world-conquering G.I.s in midlife, Millennials will feel intensely modern in science and taste. They will build large new constructions, establish a powerful social regimen, and indulge their children. When a new Awakening later erupts, the Millennials will for the first time discover a generation that refuses to celebrate them: their own children, freshly come of age.
In recent years, many have despaired that America no longer produces leaders who can galvanize and inspire. Yet it is the turning, not the nation, that elevates great people to the apex of national power. Lincoln and FDR are both cases in point: Both has to wait for a crisis to hit. An Unraveling is an era when most people of intelligence, vision, and integrity do not seek (much less get elected to) high public offices. Nor is it an era when people want leaders to lead them anywhere. Indeed, the 90s-era America seems to care very little about who leads--and more more about making sure that we aren't led too fast or too far in any direction. Were candidates of Lincoln's mettle to emerge in a time like our own, they would strike people as odd, out of joint." (Imagine Barack Obama giving his Hope speech in 1993!)"After a Fourth Turning arrives, however, a Lincoln-like leader will be more likely to seek office--and a Lincoln-like leader could be exactly what America needs, wants and gets.
If you're going to watch this, I suggest keeping with it to the very end, when it completely unravels. Kathy Lee starts giving this poor guy a massage, as he's noticeably shaken by it.
shudder.
This is a music video (?) for Samantha Ronson--Lyndsay Lohan's girlfriend.
See you all in sunny San Francisco!
Answers:
1. Australia
2. Tuscany
3. Cape Town, South Africa
4. Greece, Turkey, Mediterranean trip
5. Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia trip
My answer was Tuscany, but that's more a reflection of my limited travel experience than any personal preference.
Then again, one of the reasons I'm looking forward to turning 40 (which, in case you didn't know, is a long way away) is because I'll be better equipped to spend weeks or months in a Tuscan villa, drinking buckets of Chianti with close friends and eating some of the best food on earth.
Where would you honeymoon? The mountains? The sea?
Sometime between 4pm yesterday and just a few moments ago, I realized that this is quite possibly the most depressing thing I've ever done.
Allow me to transcribe a passage from this tiny orange book, so that you'll get a better idea of why life absolutely sucks right now.
"Whether a business should be run for short-term results or with a focus on the long term is likewise a question of values. Financial analysts believe that businesses can be run for both simultaneously. Successful business people know better."
And it goes on and on like that.
Excuse me while I turn on Radiohead's Amnesiac and light up a cigarette. I need to get back to my college years. Is anyone listening? What the fuck is happening?
I'm a little alarmed by this, and my concern is most definitely related to the scores of Russian-language spam I receive each day. 60% of all internet crime comes from Russia. And now Livejournal is owned by a Russian company.
SAN FRANCISCO – December 3, 2007 – SUP, an international media company based in Moscow, today announced that it has acquired LiveJournal from Six Apart, Ltd. LiveJournal is one of the world's leading global online communities, with a monthly audience of more than 18m unique visitors in nearly every country in the world. Additionally, SUP today launched a new U.S. company, LiveJournal, Inc., based in San Francisco, which will manage and operate LiveJournal. More information on the acquisition is available at lj_2008.
Story here.
http://icanhascheezburger.com/
moar funny pictures
